Friday, July 22, 2005

Who is the enemy? Pipes & Phillips estimate the numbers

You often read the comment that we are dealing with a "tiny minority" of Muslims who are terrroists or terrorist supporters, yet rarely does anyone try to quantify this. Ken Livingstone ludicrously believes we are dealing with "tens, not hundreds". Somewhat more convincingly, here's Pipes (a link I think I have sent before):

Who Is the Enemy?
Daniel Pipes
January 2002

Let me try to specify with greater exactness the constituency for militant Islam. It is divisible into three main elements.

The first is the inner core, made up of the likes of Osama bin Laden, the nineteen hijackers, al Qaeda, leaders of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, and the rest of the network of violent groups inspired by militant Islamic ideology. Such groups have mostly come into existence since 1970, becoming since then an evermore important force in the Muslim world. The network, dubbed the "Islamintern" by some Muslim critics, contains both Shiite and Sunni variants, appeals to rich and poor alike, and is active in such far-flung locations as Afghanistan, Algeria, and Argentina. In 1983 some of its members initiated a campaign of violence against the United States whose greatest triumph so far was the spectacular operation on September 11. In all, the network's adherents are as few as they are fanatical, numbering perhaps in the thousands.

The second ring comprises a much larger population of militants who are sympathetic to al Qaeda's radical utopian vision without themselves being a part of it. Their views were on display daily as soon as hostilities began in Afghan istan: protesters and mujahideen by the tens of thousands, all expressing a determined loathing of the United States and an enthusiasm for further acts of violence. ... As best I can estimate from election data, survey research, anecdotal evidence, and the opinions of informed observers, this Islamist element constitutes some 10 to 15 percent of the total Muslim world population of roughly one billion - that is, some 100 to 150 million persons worldwide.

The third ring consists of Muslims who do not accept the militant Islamic program in all its particulars but do concur with its rank anti-Americanism. This sentiment is found at almost every point along the political spectrum. A secular fascist like Saddam Hussein shares a hatred of the United States with the far leftists of the PKK Kurdish group who in turn share it with an eccentric figure like Muammar Qaddafi. Reliable statistics on opinion in the Muslim world do not exist, but my sense is that one half of the world's Muslims -or some 500 million persons- sympathize more with Osama bin Laden and the Taliban than with the United States. That such a vast multitude hates the United States is sobering indeed.

I bring it up again because I was looking into the worthy Melanie Phillips, who in another current thread has been accused of being al-Qaradawi in disguise, and I found this contribution of hers to the numbers game:

This lethal moral madness
Melanie Phillips
Daily Mail
14 July 2005

Far from being adherents of a ‘religion of peace’, huge numbers of Muslims world-wide support al Qaeda — 65 per cent in Pakistan, 45 per cent in Morocco. And in Britain, where the vast majority of Muslims are opposed to terrorism, according to an ICM poll carried out for the Guardian some 13 per cent of a Muslim community of 1.6 million support it.

And finally, here is the poll she refers to:

Muslims abandon Labour over Iraq war
March 15, 2004
Guardian

7 comments:

JP said...

Does anyone see these poll results as anything other than appalling?

http://news.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=JXBW54TNRND43QFIQMFCNAGAVCBQYJVC?xml=/news/2005/07/23/npoll23.xml
One in four Muslims sympathises with motives of terrorists
Telegraph
23/07/2005

The group portrait of British Muslims painted by YouGov's survey for The Daily Telegraph is at once reassuring and disturbing, in some ways even alarming.

Muslims are divided over the morality of the London bombings, over the extent of their loyalty to this country and over how Muslims should respond to recent events.

Six per cent insist that the bombings were ... fully justified. Six per cent may seem a small proportion but in absolute numbers it amounts to about 100,000 individuals who, if not prepared to carry out terrorist acts, are ready to support those who do.

Moreover, the proportion of YouGov's respondents who, while not condoning the London attacks, have some sympathy with the feelings and motives of those who carried them out is considerably larger - 24 per cent.

YouGov also asked whether or not its Muslim respondents agreed or disagreed with Tony Blair's description of the ideas and ideology of the London bombers as "perverted and poisonous". Again, while a large majority, 58 per cent, agree with him, a substantial minority, 26 per cent, are reluctant to be so dismissive.

YouGov asked respondents how loyal they feel towards Britain. 18 per cent, feels little loyalty towards this country or none at all. If these findings are accurate, and they probably are, well over 100,000 British Muslims feel no loyalty whatsoever towards this country.

Equally remarkable are YouGov's findings concerning many Muslims' attitudes towards Western society and culture. However, nearly a third of British Muslims, 32 per cent, are far more censorious, believing that "Western society is decadent and immoral and that Muslims should seek to bring it to an end".

Among those who hold this view, almost all go on to say that Muslims should only seek to bring about change by non-violent means but one per cent, about 16,000 individuals, declare themselves willing, possibly even eager, to embrace violence.

More than half of those interviewed, 52 per cent, believe "British political leaders don't mean it when they talk about equality. They regard the lives of white British people as more valuable than the lives of British Muslims". Almost as many, 50 per cent, reckon the main party leaders are not being sincere when they say they respect Islam and want to co-operate with Britain's Muslim communities.

YouGov asked its Muslim respondents whether or not they thought anyone charged and taken to court in connection with the July 7 attacks would receive a fair trial. Only 37 per cent said yes. The rest reckon he or she would not or were doubtful that they would.

Nearly half, 47 per cent, say they would also go to the police if they believed an imam or other religious person was trying to radicalise young Muslims by preaching hatred against the West. Not only that but 70 per cent of Muslims reckon they have a duty to go to the police if they "see something in the community that makes them feel suspicious". [JP COMMENT: This of course means that 53% and 30% would NOT!]

JP said...

Anyone want to try and explain the difference between US Muslims (in this interview at least) and ours?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/07/23/npoll223.xml
Islam's US faithful are happy to embrace the American dream
By Harry Mount in Dearborn
Telegraph
23/07/2005

Islam may be thriving in America - it is the fastest growing religion - but it is a religion of a very different tone to the harsh message preached by some fundamentalist imams in the UK. "I cannot believe what imams in London have been preaching," said Eide Alawan, the chief adviser to Hassan Qazwini, the imam at America's largest mosque, which is part of the Islamic Centre of America in Dearborn. Mr Alawan said:

"If anybody preached in favour of bombing in this mosque, the community would be on top of them. ''They'd report it to the board [of the mosque] and he'd be fired. "There's no room for a 'but' about condemning violence. If you kill me, you kill the whole of humanity. If you've got a problem about Israel, sure, bring it up. But bring it up another time. Don't relate the two. If I heard about any kids talking about America as the Great Evil, or planning something dangerous, I'd turn them in. I've seen angry kids here. They may hate what's going on in America but so do a lot of non-Muslims. 'I've never heard a kid say, 'I want to strap a bomb on me and blow up a lot of people'. ''

Mr Alawan added: ''Our kids are American. They realise what this country has done for our people."

dan said...

This might be very glib, but I'm tempted to point to the policy of multi-culturalism. I feel in this country we have not done enough to forge a common identity. I see multi-culturalism as a form of ghettoisation that allows people to feel seperate and disconnected from the country in which they live. This is an off the top of the head response, so I'm sure there are alternative explanations.

JP said...

Best glib comment I've read about multi-culti & it's assault on a national identity anyone would want to identify with is:

"when everybody's somebody, nobody's anybody".

JP said...

Nice to see Pipes (albeit unwittingly) quoting me, instead of the other way round.

;-)

http://www.danielpipes.org/article/2797
British Opinion Surveys from an Islamist Hell
by Daniel Pipes
July 25, 2005

JP said...

Interesting stuff.

Attitudes of British Muslims - Times Poll 12/05

JP said...

More Muslim polls:

More Survey Research from Hell (on British Muslim Attitudes)
Daniel Pipes
Weblog
July 26, 2005

1 in 10 Indonesians backs suicide blasts
Reuters
March 16, 2006

Poll results on Palestinian Attitudes towards the results of the PLC elections held on January 25, 2006
Jerusalem Media & Communication Center
February, 2006